Amidst 2025’s turbulence and uncertainty, client media dollars matter more than ever. It's critical for brands to understand what they are getting for their marketing spend, what's really driving their business, and that they can approach media allocation decisions with data-backed confidence rather than gut feeling alone.
After extensive experience building Market Mix Models (MMMs) and analyzing response curves for some of the world's most beloved consumer brands, Stella’s analytics team has uncovered meaningful patterns in how different media channels perform: benchmarks for what brands can generally expect from each media channel. Of course, creative and industry context matter—but these time-tested norms have emerged consistently across diverse brand journeys and offer data-backed navigation as you chart your brand's path to future growth.
PART I: SHAPING SUCCESS: RESPONSE CURVES & DIMINISHING RETURNS
What Exactly Is a Response Curve?
When you see the same ad for the 20th time, no matter the channel, does it impact you as strongly as the first viewing—or the third? Probably not.
That's the principle behind response curves—they're rooted in the empirical evidence of diminishing returns. As you can see here, in each curve, there is a point at which the efficacy of the channel diminishes, despite an increase in spend. The curve shapes below by channel are typical expectations based on our MMM data stack. Please note that shapes are uniquely defined by client’s own data but can serve well for benchmarking purposes.
Response curves visualize a fundamental truth in marketing: ROAS is never static. It's dynamic, changing as channels receive more investment. When a brand floods the market with dollars in a certain channel, the curve will inevitably bend, showing exactly where efficiency starts to decline, because the audience is tired of that brand’s ad in that channel.
After analyzing countless campaigns, we've identified distinct patterns across channels:
Brand Search is a Sprint Star
Brand search typically shows the steepest initial curve—the first dollars drive substantial impact out-the-gate. We recommend testing brand search as one of your first channels to understand its incrementality. Why? Platforms tend to over-credit brand search due to user behavior (users will click on a brand search ad even when they don't need to). Determining exactly where that curve flattens can save significant budget that can then be reallocated elsewhere. We find that brand search doesn’t have the scalability of other channels, but that it’s smart to right-size this channel first, because its curve shape tends to be obvious.
Non-Brand Search Goes the Distance
Unlike its branded counterpart, non-brand search doesn't typically show the same incrementality with early dollars, but it has greater staying power. When brand search starts to flatline, non-brand search often continues driving incremental returns. The exact shape depends on term competitiveness and funding strategy, but this extended potential makes brand search valuable in your brand’s overall media mix.
Social, Online Video (YouTube), and TV (Linear, Connected): The Power Players
Brand and non-brand search are demand-based channels: consumers have to search for a brand, a product, or a category and in doing so, they show interest, they figuratively raise their hand. If users never act, search will never capture them! It has inherent limitations.
If your budget allows, prospecting channels are necessary to integrate into your media mix. With bigger budgets, demand channels will cap out, but prospecting channels (social and video) will work beautifully, scaling impressively with higher budgets.
While not as efficient with initial dollars as search, prospecting channels continue to drive incrementality even at higher spending levels. Their curves rise more gradually but extend further, driving longer-term, profitable growth.
Print, Radio, OOH: The Steady Contributors
Offline channels follow similar shapes to prospecting digital channels but typically at lower impact levels. They'll never dominate an optimized budget, but they consistently earn their place in a well-balanced mix. Their inclusion prevents over-saturation in other, digital channels and helps maintain efficiency across an entire program.
PART II: BEYOND THE CURVE: CARRYOVER IMPACT & AUDIENCE DYNAMICS
Carryover Impact: The Advertising Afterglow
While response curves show immediate returns, carryover impact reveals how long advertising continues working after exposure. This is entirely different from diminishing returns—it's about duration of effect.
For example, when a consumer sees an online video ad in week one, approximately 50% of that impact may still influence behavior in week two. Each channel has a distinctive carryover profile that ranges from a high (longer duration) carryover impact to a low (shorter) carryover impact:
- TV (CTV, Linear): High
- YouTube: Mid-High
- Social: Mid
- Print: Mid
- OOH: Mid
- Radio: Low-Mid
- Display: Low-Mid
- Non-Brand Search: Low-Mid
- Brand Search: Low
This reality means traditional MMMs actually undervalue upper-funnel channels because models are fixed in time. If a model ends in Q4, you won't see how those Q4 TV impressions deliver Q1 results.
The S-Curve Phenomenon
TV (Connected or Linear) often displays a unique S-shaped response curve. Unlike a typical curve share, S-curves suggest initial dollars may underperform until you reach a threshold spending level. After crossing this threshold, performance improves dramatically. The challenge? Many brands don't invest enough to get over this "activation hump," leading to undervalued performance in their models. Even if a brand can’t afford a strong annual investment level, you can still pass the hump if TV is pulsed strategically to align with innovation or promotion.
The Halo Effect
Certain channels influence others—what we call "halos." Video consistently demonstrates the strongest halo effect, boosting performance across other channels in the media mix.
Audience Overlap: The Reach Reality
While digital channels can be extremely efficient, they often reach the same audiences. Adding your fifth social channel likely increases frequency more than reach. Offline channels, despite sometimes showing lower direct returns, can play a vital role in acquiring net-new audiences. Our MRI Simmons analyses consistently show that unique reach increases significantly when offline channels—like print and radio—complement digital efforts.
SO, WHAT IS AN OPTIMIZED BUDGET, AND HOW TO ACHIEVE IT?
Perhaps the most important insight: the optimal media mix changes dramatically based on your total budget level. When budgets are lower, search and social typically dominate the mix. As budgets grow, connected TV and online video take larger shares.
This isn't just about moving money around—it's about finding the perfect state of equilibrium where every dollar works as hard as possible: that is an optimized budget! Clients often ask: what is my optimized mix? Well, it changes as your budget does! If a brand is planning to subtract or add budget the equilibrium point shifts and the media mix needs to be re-worked. Total budget level determines the incrementality of each channel and when dollars need to start shifting from one channel to the next.
MAKING THE MOST OF EVERY DOLLAR
Understanding response curves and carryover impacts transforms media planning from guesswork to science. While results will always depend on creative quality, targeting strategy, and industry dynamics, these norms provide invaluable guardrails for more effective investment.
In today's increasingly complex media landscape, knowing not just how much to spend, but exactly where diminishing returns begin for each channel, could be your most powerful competitive advantage.
Ready to uncover the perfect equilibrium for your brand's media mix? Connect with us to learn more.
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