We expect this holiday season to come with a twist. Ecommerce sales are on track to hit a new high ($304.19B), but the shoppers behind those dollars are spending very carefully. The reasons are those you would expect: higher gas prices, persistent inflation, and general anxiety. But they are spending—as The Wall Street Journal put it, “Americans are spending more on food, travel, couches, Halloween decor and most anything else they want or need—pushing through inflation and their own gloomy feelings about the economy.”
Amazon captures a lot of that spending, accounting for 39.7% of all ecommerce market share this year—so how can your brand win the hearts and wallets of 2026's intentional consumer cohort?
RECORD SALES, CAUTIOUS SHOPPERS
Before we dive into how to win them over, a little bit more on those cautious consumers:
- Budgets will likely shrink: consumers plan to spend an average of $708 on gifts this year, down 1.8%. Millennials (down 10.2%) and Gen Z (down 9%) are expected to pull back most.
- So, it’s prices, not purchases, driving growth: much of this year's gain will come from inflation rather than people buying more.
- Remember, costs keep climbing: inflation has outpaced wage growth since April, and record diesel prices could push shipping costs, and shelf prices, even higher.
The result? Shoppers who research more, compare more, and make every dollar count.
TWO RETAILERS, MORE THAN HALF THE PIE
Amazon and Walmart will likely capture 53% of holiday ecommerce sales, thanks to sticky memberships, low prices, and convenience. Amazon alone is forecast to drive $128.2B in U.S. holiday ecommerce sales, roughly 1.8 times the next five retailers combined.
DEALS DRIVE TIMING, BUT DISCOUNTS ALONE WON'T WIN
Nearly 80% of shoppers say deals and discounts will influence when they shop, and Cyber Five is expected to account for 16.5% of holiday ecommerce spending. But with more than 90% of shoppers planning to take part in Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or another major sales event, a discount alone won't set your brand apart.
The brands that stand out will pair smart promotions with something shoppers can't get elsewhere: exclusive products, giftable bundles and value sets, and can't-miss moments that earn attention before paid media extends the reach.
HOW AMAZON'S NEWEST TOOLS HELP BRANDS WIN Q4
Our retail media team just got back from Amazon Accelerate, and the theme was AI that takes work off sellers' plates. Here's what matters most for the holidays:
- Show up in AI shopping conversations. Sponsored Products and Sponsored Brands ads now appear inside Alexa for Shopping, Amazon's AI shopping assistant, as "prompts" that start a conversation about your product. Shoppers who click one of these prompts convert 48% more often and spend 21% more. Alexa reads full product pages, reviews and outside press, so detail page quality now affects ad reach, not just conversion. For research-heavy holiday shoppers, clear, benefit-led content is a must. We're auditing clients' top ASINs for complete attributes, strong A+ content and clear claims before peak.
- Make every campaign review count. A new AI campaign insights dashboard (rolling out in October) explains what's driving each campaign's results and recommends changes, like raising a bid on a top keyword that's losing impression share. It's a faster starting point for peak-season optimizations, and we'll check its recommendations against our own analysis before applying them.
- Bring back your best customers. With Ads Data Manager, brands can use their own customer data, like site visitors and email lists, to reach existing and lookalike customers on Amazon. Advertisers using first-party data see 30% higher ROAS. When budgets are tight, loyal customers are your most valuable audience.
- Get inventory there on time, and protect your margins. Time to Prime (October) shows when inbound FBA inventory will earn the Prime badge, so stock is ready before big sale events. Profit Analytics shows product-level profit after ad spend, fees, storage and returns, which is key when rising costs squeeze margins. And starting by the end of 2026, accounts with an Account Health Rating of 250+ get grace periods and keep listings live during most appeals.
- Meet shoppers beyond Amazon. New tools let sellers manage TikTok Shop, Shopify, eBay, Walmart listings, and orders from Seller Central. Multi-Channel Fulfillment now handles TikTok Shop compliance automatically and offers TikTok Shop sellers up to 35% off fees.
Also worth knowing: Custom Analytics adds 169+ metrics and an AI dashboard builder, and 90-day launch plans (late October) give new products a personalized launch checklist.
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2027
A few launches will shape how brands manage Amazon in the new year:
- Keyword auto-optimization (January 2027): A one-click Sponsored Products setting that adds converting keywords, pauses underperformers and catches seasonal spikes within your existing budgets. In beta, campaigns saw 13% more sales and a first sale 40% faster. We'll test it carefully before rolling it out.
- AI in Seller Central: Amazon's new plugin connects Seller Central to Claude for live account insights, and Seller Assistant Workflows automate routine monitoring in plain English. Both require human approval before any change.
THE BOTTOM LINE
This holiday season rewards brands that are deliberate, just like their shoppers. Strong product content, smart promotions and the right mix of automation and human strategy will separate the brands that grow from the ones that get lost in the noise.
Want help making the most of Q4? Our retail media team is ready to help your brand get holiday-ready and set up for 2027. We’d love to hear from you.
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